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Modelling Managed Retreat with RASE and C-ADAPT
Developing resilient futures is complex when communities face significant economic risk from coastal and flood hazards. Decision-making must consider the triple bottom line of economic, environmental, and social dimensions. The complexity of such decision-making goes beyond human comprehension and systems models are mandatory to assess options and discover opportunities and trade-offs. We have developed two models with numerical stability and flexibility.
The RASE model is an integrated assessment model using System Dynamics and Scenario Planning to investigate the economic vulnerability of communities to the compounding impacts of sea-level rise and flooding. The approach uses a coastal flood risk assessment that quantifies physical drivers alongside socioeconomic drivers in coastal communities to provide options for managing uncertain futures. Alternatively, C-ADAPT explores the financial and land-use scenarios for managed retreat based on the economic outcomes of the RASE model. Scenarios are time-dependent and rigorously tested on a System Dynamics platform.